RAJAR Q3/2014

Where most radio programmers go wrong is that they forget they have different types of listeners who listen to their station in different ways.

If you want to increase your RAJAR figures, I’m sorry, but one size does not fit all.

If you don’t have any light listeners it probably means they don’t know about  you, so you’ll probably need some reach-building mechanics and some external marketing wouldn’t go a miss. You also probably need to be explaining what you do better and (light) listeners need to know when to sample. Fixed benchmarks, travel every 20 minutes, 30 minutes non-stop – whatever – anything you can do to give them reasons to stop by. Light listeners are unlikely to be attracted by changing elements in a programme – they’re not even there in the first place!

But these tactics won’t support growing hours for existing listeners. For that you’ll need to give opportunities to listen in other day-parts, have an hours-building promotion and perhaps change how often your currents come around.

For many stations they’ll need to do both those sets of things. At the same time. Your listeners are subsets of different groups and they need to be looked after in different ways.

The other mistake is the assumption that they’re ‘your’ listeners. They’re not. You share them with other people. You are in a war for their attention.

As stations’ figures fluctuate ever more, it’s easy to refer to RAJAR blips, I’d also argue whilst of course that happens, you’re also programming in the most competitive radio market ever. Your figures may be going down because what you’re doing on the air just isn’t as good as what else is on the dial.

But if you combine fluctuation, competition and detail about different groups of listeners you get Heart London.

Heart London

Top line for Heart London is pretty grim. Reach down to 1.4m (Q2 was 1.8m, Q3/13 1.7m). Hours down to 7.9m (Q2 was 11.5m and Q3/13 8.7m).

But when you dig in it’s harder to lay the blame entirely at Heart’s door. The chart below takes all of Heart London’s Reach and then looks at ALL of their hours – both their listening to Heart and to other stations.

It shows that listening to Heart accounts for a quarter of its listeners’ listening (down from 30% in the previous quarter). But the real thing is that Heart listeners have consumed a fifth less radio in total. Now, Heart’s borne the brunt of that (seeing a 31.1% drop) but their listening to Magic, Kiss and R1 is pretty down too.

What’s changed? Listening to Capital’s grown a bit and Radio 2 and LBC are pretty solid.

Q3 includes July, August and September – a key holiday period with loads of changes in behaviour – not going to work, no school run etc. Now this will affect many stations, but perhaps Heart’s market has become an audience  who’s radio habits really do shift around in Q3.

Q2 2014

Q3 2014

Change – ‘000s

Change – %

Heart Listeners’ All Radio

39,947

31,556.5

-8,391

-21.0%

Heart London

11,565.4

7,962.9

-3,603

-31.1%

Magic 105.4 (London)

3,596.2

2,965.6

-631

-17.5%

Capital London

2,543.8

2,764.6

221

8.7%

Kiss 100 FM

2,790.2

1,989.5

-801

-28.7%

BBC Radio 2

1,951.7

1,903.3

-48

-2.5%

BBC Radio 4

1,545.5

1,293.4

-252

-16.3%

LBC 97.3

1,040.3

1,045.3

5

0.5%

BBC Radio 1

1,481.1

886.2

-595

-40.2%

Smooth Radio London

910.8

781.7

-129

-14.2%

BBC Radio 5 live

1,084.1

711.1

-373

-34.4%

Classic FM

1,525.3

543.9

-981

-64.3%

talkSPORT

1,250

426.8

-823

-65.9%

BBC London 94.9

545.5

410.6

-135

-24.7%

BBC 6 Music

145.7

378.3

233

159.6%

Gold London

775

361.4

-414

-53.4%

Sunrise Radio

96.3

345.7

249

259.0%

Absolute Radio London

512.2

281

-231

-45.1%

Premier Christian Radio

58.4

276.3

218

373.1%

Heat

306.8

267.8

-39

-12.7%

1Xtra from the BBC

66.7

266.7

200

299.9%

Absolute 80s

314.3

242.5

-72

-22.8%

Planet Rock UK

14.8

226.2

211

1,428.4%

Jazz FM

100.9

225

124

123.0%

Capital XTRA (London)

292.2

188.1

-104

-35.6%

XFM London

255.8

146.2

-110

-42.8%

BBC World Service

83.6

139.8

56

67.2%

Kisstory

431.7

135.3

-296

-68.7%

LBC News 1152

205.2

116.1

-89

-43.4%

Kerrang!

174.9

107.3

-68

-38.7%

BBC Asian Network UK

63.2

89.5

26

41.6%

BBC Radio 4 Extra

74.9

87.5

13

16.8%

Kiss Fresh (Was Smash Hits)

90.5

83.1

-7

-8.2%

BBC Radio 5 live sports extra

114.1

75

-39

-34.3%

Absolute Radio Classic Rock

74.4

67.5

-7

-9.3%

The Hits

103.4

52.8

-51

-48.9%

BBC Radio 3

102.3

41.3

-61

-59.6%

Absolute Radio 90s

53.3

31.5

-22

-40.9%

Absolute Radio 70s

61.4

25.3

-36

-58.8%

Radio 1035 AM

18.1

21.7

4

19.9%

Absolute Radio 00s

90.4

15.2

-75

-83.2%

Radio 1458 AM

82.3

10.2

-72

-87.6%

Absolute Radio 60s

10.1

2.9

-7

-71.3%

Other Radio

1,344.5

1,877.1

533

39.6%

 

Share

Commercial audience share in London is always a hot button. Everyone’s very keen to fight over being Number 1. This quarter it’s: 1. Capital, 2. Magic, 3. Kiss, 4. Heart, 5. Absolute, 6. Smooth.

But when looking at the full list of stations below (below) you can also see the power of the national and specialist stations. Indeed, Sunrise and Premier Christian Radio are doing better than Capital Xtra and digital stations like Jazz FM and Kisstory have the same market share as XFM.

Share %
BBC Radio 4

15

BBC Radio 2

11.3

Capital London

5.3

LBC 97.3

5.1

Magic 105.4 (London)

5.1

BBC Radio 1

4.5

Kiss 100 FM

4.5

Classic FM

4.3

Heart London

3.9

BBC Radio 5 Live

3.7

BBC 6 Music

2.6

talkSPORT

2.6

Absolute Radio

2.1

Smooth Radio

2.1

BBC Radio 3

1.5

Sunrise Radio

1.4

Gold London

1.3

Absolute Radio London

1.1

BBC London 94.9

1.1

Premier Christian Radio

1

BBC Radio 4 Extra

0.9

BBC World Service

0.9

LBC News 1152

0.9

Capital XTRA (London)

0.8

Jazz FM

0.7

Kisstory

0.7

XFM London

0.7

Absolute 80s

0.5

BBC Radio 5 live sports extra

0.5

Planet Rock UK

0.5

1Xtra from the BBC

0.4

Heat

0.3

Kerrang!

0.3

Radio 1458 AM

0.3

Absolute Radio 60s

0.2

Absolute Radio 70s

0.2

Absolute Radio 90s

0.2

Absolute Radio Classic Rock

0.2

BBC Asian Network UK

0.2

Absolute Radio 00s

0.1

Kiss Fresh (Was Smash Hits)

0.1

Radio 1035 AM

0.1

The Hits

0.1

London is a market with lots of digital choice and a high degree of digital consumption – what’s happening here will eventually happen everywhere else.

If Jazz and Kisstory can get the same share as XFM, then what real value does its FM licence have?

Digital

There’s actually lots of good digital stories in this book.

  • Digital’s share of listening is at a record high of 38%
  • DAB now accounts for a quarter of all radio’s hours
  • Over half the country (51.2%) listen to some form of digital radio each week.
  • 6 Music’s had a reach increase to 1.99m
  • Absolute 80s is at a record reach of 1.4m

Absolute 80s also has record breakfast figures with 462k tuning into the 80s version of the OC. I think its first figures since ‘Project Banana’ allowed Christian’s Absolute Radio Breakfast show to be broadcast live, but with 80s music.

Heat

Heat Radio’s also had a very good book, it’s best ever. They’re  now larger than The Hits with 965k listeners. These figures have come from good growth over the past few quarters and it’s nice to see its average hours are up too.

I think there’s a number of reasons that Heat’s done so well. Firstly it’s a great brand – you can guess what you’re going to get before you tune in. Secondly – it sounds like the brand. It’s a rhythmic AC station with values that give it permission to play the odd guilty pleasure. It’s also got a great on-brand presenter in Ryan Seacrest (and his syndicated show).

Finally, it’s a fun, active station with speech and music content that reflects today. This afternoon James Barr had a Glee promotion, interviewed Nick Jonas and then played 30mins of S Club 7 songs. I bet not many AC/CHR analogue stations had an afternoon that was as engaging.

p.s. Sorry Adam for stealing your picture. So, why not read his RAJAR blog post!

Radio stations with the most social network listeners

“When did they add social to RAJAR”, I semi-screamed at Dave on Friday afternoon. “Er last quarter I think”.

I was creating a demographic group when I’d noticed that Dave had added a whole social section to Octagon CrossTab (the excellent software from Hallett Arendt that I use to do RAJAR things). The nuts and bolts of RAJAR are, of course, radio listening – but it also asks lots of other questions from the newspaper people read to how much TV they watch. Octagon CrossTab allows me to create demographic groups which are usually things like ‘people aged 20 to 39’ or ‘Guardian readers’ but now I could create demos based on people’s use of social media.

It allows me too look at social networks including Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, Pinterest, Google+, MySpace, Instagram, Tumblr, Flickr and Vine and sort use by listeners from ‘never’ through to ‘several times a day’.

So, I thought it might be interesting to have a look at stations with the most active Twitter and Facebook users in Q2/2014.

This doesn’t look at active users of a station’s Facebook/Twitter account, but the listeners who state they use the social networks AND listen to each of the stations. Why bother with this when you can look at the follower/like numbers? Well, I think this is more interesting it shows the radio stations that have really engaged social media users. If your station is high up the list then by concentrating on your social output you could actually start to have a meaningful effect on reach and hours.

Now, I can cut this a number of ways. Firstly we’re going to look at Heavy Twitter use and sort it by the total number of people per station who state they use it ‘a few times a week’ or ‘several times a day/daily’. In other words a list of the stations with the highest Heavy Twitter users. For this I’ve stripped out corporate groupings but left in networks.

Heavy Twitter Users (‘000)

BBC Radio 1

2,831

BBC Radio 2

1,872

Capital Network

1,725

Heart Network

1,368

BBC Radio 4

1,187

Kiss UK

1,136

BBC Radio 5 live

1,088

talkSPORT

801

BBC 6 Music 

562

Capital London

547

Now I’m going to look at Heavy Twitter use as a percentage of reach. So this shows the percentage of a radio station’s reach that are Heavy Twitter users.

% Heavy Twitter Use

Kisstory

36.0%

1Xtra

31.9%

Kiss Fresh

31.6%

BBC 6 Music

29.7%

Capital XTRA (London)

29.5%

XFM London

29.0%

107.6 Juice FM

27.5%

City Talk 105.9

27.4%

Capital South Wales

27.3%

Kiss West

27.2%

 

Up next is good old Facebook. Again, I’ve removed corporate groupings and ranked by the number of listeners who use Facebook ‘a few times a week’ or ‘several times a day/daily’.

% Heavy Facebook Users (‘000)

BBC Radio 1

7,219

BBC Radio 2

6,739

Heart Network

5,164

Capital Network

4,736

BBC Radio 4

3,320

Kiss UK

3,114

BBC Radio 5 live

2,404

Smooth Radio Network

2,003

Magic UK

1,951

Classic FM

1,779

 

And then by percentage of total reach…

% Heavy Facebook Users

XFM Manchester

73.9%

96.3 Radio Aire

71.8%

Kiss Fresh

71.7%

Kisstory

71.4%

Key 103

71.2%

Kiss East

71.2%

Kerrang!

70.7%

Capital South Wales

70.6%

Heat

70.2%

The Hits

70.0%

 

The North West clearly loves a bit of FB!

I think this may be the first of a few posts looking at social. But if you want to investigate it yourself, and your station is an Octagon CrossTab customer – just add a bespoke demo in the ‘Demographics Editor’ and then you can use it in any column, row or layer in any type of analysis.

RAJAR Q2/2014

RAJAR has always been about trends. Snapshots of quarters don’t really tell much of a story, it’s the direction of travel that’s really interesting. This happens at both a macro and micro level – of course what’s happening to Station FM is interesting, but we’re also blessed in the UK that because we measure where people listen and how they listen, we’ve able to understand much more about the changing behaviour of the listener.

If you’re just concentrating on the reach and share of a single station, then you’re missing out on the true shifts in the market.

For me ‘digital’ is more than just a particular platform. To me it means people choosing stations based on strength of the brand and the content rather than just what they happen to be able to pick up on their analogue radio.

6Music now has more listeners (just) than BBC Radio 3. It does not need an analogue outlet to be successful. Absolute 80s has 70% of the reach of the main Absolute Radio. Heat Radio, a well-targeted magazine spin off is on the way to a million listeners. Kisstory, on-air for around a year, is bigger than Planet Rock (age: 15). Eagle Radio’s been on DAB for a couple of quarters and its already generating 15% of its hours from that platform.

As a radio industry we should celebrate, we’re being freed from our FM shackles. How much better to compete on content rather than rely on happening to have 2million watts of music power.

Bauer

I think Bauer gets more of my attention now than it (or EMAP before it) ever has. It does however seem to be a fundamentally boring company that happens to have some interesting assets.

Over the past 18 months there’s no arguing though that they seem to have got their shit together. Grabbing Planet Rock and Absolute has given them hours – to fight Global Radio – and has also given them some interesting people. You only have to look at the rise of the Absolute team in the Bauer structure to show they were lacking in quite a few areas.

In the UK, Bauer is smaller than Global Radio. Global have more licences, more audience and more hours. There’s also limited growth for Bauer – there are less and less prime assets around. The last big one is probably talkSPORT. With its radio/mag/digital output it would be a sensible fit for Bauer.

The one thing Bauer does have over Global, is digital radio clout. Their press release tells me that 50.8% of their business is now made up of digital hours. The acquisition of Absolute has helped this no end – as an amazing 82% of Absolute’s hours come from digital listening. With those kind of numbers you’d definitely be looking at the AM and FM costs…

Looking at all listening, Global’s sales division has 209m hours, Bauer’s 144m. But just concentrating on the digital hours for the groups, Global is on 65m but Bauer’s on 70m. Bauer will be trying to keep that lead over Global as the UK gradually transitions to a predominantly digital country. It’ll mean that they don’t have to worry about complex warehousing arrangements or OFT negotiations – they’ll be growing their business through attracting listeners to their brands.

The two things that will get in the way of this dream are Global, of course, but also themselves.

Even with this digital drive, I worry that it fails to pay much attention to its digital siblings. If you treat Heat, Absolute 80s, Absolute Radio 90s, Kisstory, Kiss Fresh and Planet Rock as a network – it’d be one that delivers 5m listeners and 27m hours. This compares to Kiss UK (26m hours), Bauer Scotland (16m hours) and Magic UK (19m hours). Bauer’s English Place network’s reach is only a little higher than the new station combo at 5.4m.

For me, something like The Hits shows the dichotomy. I think The Hits is a great little station. It sounds good, it’s got a good on-air team who come over as being young and in touch. It should be seeing great growth – but this quarter its reach and hours have dropped nearly 20%. It was a station regularly around a million but now is at 774k. I think it’s almost criminal to have a station punching those sort of numbers with, what looks like, pretty much no marketing, its online activity built on good will and, I believe, not even paying all of their presenters.

I know other stations are looking at The Hits – and plucking talent from it – it’s a shame it’s not as well supported by the Bauer guys.

Radio 1

Someone I’m sure that’s over the moon that The Hits is sidelined is Radio 1, who continue their task to keep the station young and to try and take it younger. Radio 1’s average age (looking 15+) is 34. It’s been 34 (with rounding to the nearest whole number) since Q1/2010. If you look at 10+ it’s 32 (again with rounding). Which it’s been since Q2/2010. Contrary to the visible evidence though,  I still believe making Radio 1 younger is an achievable aim.

On the face of it Nicks’ had a good book, up quarter on quarter and year on year to 5.9m listeners (up from 5.8m for both). However, his 15 to 24s have dropped 190k, whilst he’s added 338k 25 to 64s. The share of 15 to 24s who are tuning in has dropped to 22.5%, not his lowest ever, but still a disappointing number for the team. And also probably not helping those average age numbers either.

Global Radio

In other news – Global’s execution of Smooth is really paying off. It’s doing well pretty much everywhere, but especially in London where it’s reaching 781k and has a market share of 2.6%. It’s the biggest audience it’s had since at least Q3/05. The rest of the Smooth regionals have also seen increases plus it also seems to be doing better on many of the old Gold’s it replaced on AM.

The new Hearts have done pretty well too with NE, NW, Yorks and S. Wales seeing growth, whilst Scotland, which will always probably be a difficult nut to crack,  having dropped back.

I think it’s still early days for LBC and Capital Xtra. LBC’s racking up about 150k outside of London which is solid, if unremarkable. Capital Xtra’s really taken a hit in London post-Choice at 358k reach (when it was previously doing 470, 550), however, outside of London it’s seeing more growth – no doubt aided by being in Digital One. Overall compared to the old Choice UK figures – it’s about the same.

And finally…

Thank the Lord that Radio 2 didn’t add any more listeners, even if their drop was so marginal it’s recorded as a 0% change.

Other bloggers on RAJAR night:

 

RAJAR Q1/2014

RAJAR is getting harder and harder to report on.

This is mainly for two reasons:

1. The data source is large and detailed. Radio groups are now using it through additional backstage ‘trading’ numbers to better describe their stations to agencies. So for quasi-national stations like Heart they’re now reporting more accurate numbers taking into account their FM simulcasts and DTV versions. This is a good thing. It’s also going to open up more relevant data as radio groups follow Absolute’s lead with regard to doing different things with internet streams too.

2. We live in a very competitive world. London’s chopping and changing is coming from a close fought battle between the BBC, Bauer and Global. Personally I think it’s making radio more diverse and better quality. A rising tide carries all ships.

This all makes it a little more difficult for your correspondent, the part-time RAJAR blogger.

So, what’s struck me this quarter?

Smooth. This quarter takes into account Global’s musical changes but not really their new line-up. Generally the expectation is that change causes regulars to move away before new listeners top yourself up. No sign of that problem for Global yet. Looking at the ‘old’ Smooth, that’s before they added a load of Gold stations to the network, we see around half a million added to reach and about 20% added to the hours.

Looking at the new Smooth network as a whole, they’ve added around a million listeners and driven their market share from 2.3% to 3.2%.

In London Smooth has seen one of its highest ever ratings successes with 565k reach and 3.6m hours. Early days as it is, it’s already looking like a big success for Global.

London. London remains a ridiculously volatile market. Radio 4 and Radio 2 retain the top spots in share (though both taking a kick q on q and y on y) followed by Heart (5.3%), Magic (5.3%), LBC (5.2%), Kiss (4.8%), R1 (4.5%) and Capital (4.4%). The previously mentioned Smooth pulls a 1.7% share , pretty much equalling the brand’s high water mark.

Reach-wise, top stations after R4 and R2 are Magic, Capital, Kiss and Heart.

I feel bad for Capital, it has the ability to get a much higher share, but it continues to exist as content-less radio station demonstrated by its continually poor average hours. Of course it’s hard to generate hours at the younger-end, but R1 and Kiss seem to manage it much better than Capital. To me the real kicker is that the branding and music of Capital is great, there’s just very little sticky content (outside of breakfast) to tune into.

Digging deeper into Capital, looking at Marvin from JLS’ evening show numbers, he’s seen significant declines in that slot. Partly a strong Kiss and R1 but listening in he’s seemingly not allowed to deliver the personality he’s surely hired for, making him a somewhat expensive voice-tracker.

Grimmy. As expected, the last survey was a bit of an outlier (at 6.3m) with this survey returning to the, albeit high end, of his previous figures with 5.9m. The best part of his figures are that he’s consolidating his 15 to 24 audience, with 2m of them, at the same time as seeing a decent decline in the other demos. This is R1 Breakfast successfully delivering on the high wire act he’s forced to walk – keeping total reach acceptable, maintaining a large youth share, whilst killing off the oldies.

However, even with Nick’s good work, R1’s average age nudges back up (when measured 15+) to 34. As a comparison – Capital London (34), Kiss (30), The Hits (28), 1Xtra (26), Capital Xtra (29) and Kiss Fresh (26).

Radio 2. Bloody Radio 2 continues to be unstoppable by cheating at radio with their excellent line-up, clever music choices, lack of ads and a £47.8m/year content budget. They’re now up to a surely embarrassing 15.568m listeners and a 17.9% share of all radio listening (that’s more listening than all of Global Radio’s hours combined).

Digital. Digital’s been interesting this quarter with the share increasing to 36.6% with 56.4% of all UK listeners tuning in digitally at some point in a week.

It’s a good result for digital, but not the best. What’s had a bit of a hit is a decline in DTV consumption – 51m vs last quarter’s 53m hours and a 200k drop in reach. I think we may well have hit ‘peak DTV’ use.

Internet listening saw a decline in reach (q on q) but saw some hours growth. DAB was pretty steady this quarter though did manage both reach and hours growth.

Digital Radio UK have put out some interesting figures about London stating that digital radio now has a 44.1% share, but when you dig down further and look at listening in-home, digital now has a 50.9% share of listening.

I think London is a bit of a special case – but it’s digital success is driven by a few things.

1. Analogue radio is really crap in London. Pirates infest the airwaves with many traditional stations now unlistenable on analogue radio. As a predominantly digital listener, you really notice it when you’re in an analogue-only environment like a car.

2. There’s true choice in the Capital. The national multiplexes and three locals provide around 60 stations catering for all tastes and interests. It’s no real surprise that this generates lots of digital listening.

The digital transition is most keenly being felt by Bauer. As a radio group over half their hours now comes from digital listening. Strong investment in DTV, good digital-only brands and solid digital listening to their analogue stations puts them in a great position as radio consumption continues to change.

It’s also helping Bauer catch-up with Global on the sales front. Bauer and Orion combined now provides 143m hours. Global Radio Sales delivers 209m hours.

And finally… Well done to Key 103 – highest hours since 2006 and highest reach since December 2003 making it Manchester’s Number 1 Hit Music Station for the first time in a long time!

Picture nicked from Adam Bowie, who I imagine will have a good RAJAR update too. 

Also… A Northern Ireland Update from John Rosborough
And a London update from Paul Easton
Plus a MediaTel summary

How Well Do You Know Radio? Manchester Edition

In lots of the presentations that I do at radio stations and conferences I often use data to challenge pre-conceptions. We are all sometimes guilty of projecting our own thoughts and experiences and assuming that everyone must think and do the same things. The good thing about data is it can strip out our own prejudices.

I had an interesting Twitter conversation with James Cridland and Phil Riley about digital listening. I was looking at some London RAJAR and it turned out that ‘digital listening’ (that’s DAB, DTV and Internet) was bigger than all of the listening of Radio 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 combined. Which surprised me a bit. Phil and James thought that using London as an example wasn’t representative of the rest of the country and James felt Manchester would be very different.

As I had run a load of Manchester data, I thought I would share it here. This chart is quite different to many that I run as it combines many different things. It looks at total hours to the main stations in Manchester (Key 103 TSA) but it also adds in total platform hours and listening location hours too (all Q3/2013 data).

Things I found interesting:

  • DAB listening is larger than any radio station in the area
  • Indeed it’s larger than Radio 1 and 2 combined
  • …and bigger than all in-car listening in the area
  • At home listening (on its own) is bigger than all analogue listening
  • Internet listening is bigger than Radio 1
  • 6 Music has more hours than Real Radio
  • Absolute 80s is bigger than Absolute Radio
  • Five Live is bigger than every local station except Capital
  • talkSPORT is bigger than Classic FM

Manchester Hours

 

Your Radio Listeners at Home

Ofcom, this week, released their annual Digital Radio report.

When I looked through it I was quite pleased with it. Press coverage has been less than friendly emphasising a decline in DAB set sales. I read the data slightly differently. I read that set sales were pretty flat, we sold around the same this year as last year (another 1.9m!) but that radios that were analogue-only took  a big hit – selling a million less than the previous year – but still a lot.

But, to be honest, I think there are so many things that have a knock on to what people buy that you can probably argue strongly either way that this is good news for DAB or terrible news.

As most radio listening is in home – 63% of all listening happens there, whilst only 21.2% is in car and the remainder at work or somewhere else – I thought I’d look particularly at in-home listening. It’s not something I had done before.

The big shock for me was reach.

So, radio has a 90.8% reach in the UK.

In home, radio has a 76.3% reach. That means 76.3% of the UK population listen to the radio, in some form, at home in an average week.

I thought I’d then look at ‘Total Analogue’ and ‘Total Digital’ reach.

The result is that analogue radio (AM and FM) only has a 51.7% reach in homes.

So only half the country, in radio’s most-popular location, during an average week, listen to ANYTHING on AM or FM.

I was quite surprised by this, I always assumed that analogue radio reach was going to remain relatively high through to digital switchoverm even if the volume of consumption kept dropping as people started to listen to more digital radio. After all, surely most people will hear 5 minutes of radio from an analogue set at some point in a week? At the moment when we look at total analogue reach in every location it hits 81.5%.

When we look at the percentage of the UK who listen to some form of digital radio, at home, in a week it’s 46.1%. Just 5.5 percentage points lower than analogue.

What does this mean? Well, if you’re a predominantly analogue-only station (ie not on DAB or DTV) then you’ve only got a potential audience of half your TSA. Half. And it’s getting worse.

Now, clearly this isn’t the same in-car. Digital radio only has an in-car digital reach of 11.7%, whilst analogue is much stronger, having a 58% reach of the UK population.

Though I’m sort of surprised total in-car listening is that low – 37.7% of the UK population never listen to the radio in a car at all. Sacrilege!

As we approach some switch-over announcements, people with vested interests (of which I count myself) are going to be saying lots of things. To me, the most important thing is looking at what listeners are doing and how their use of the radio is changing.

As a station owner I will go where the ears are, on platforms I can get access to or can afford. DAB, Internet, DTV, whatever reaches the most people in the most cost-effective way, my stations will be there. There’s nothing particularly wrong with FM – if you’ve got an FM licence, of course. It’s still a big platform – though as the data shows – it’s one that’s getting significantly smaller each quarter.

Platform Reach

 

 

 

 

RAJAR Facts – Q2/2013

Radios

My RAJAR facts seem to be popular, so here’s another one! If you have any of your own top facts please pop them in the contacts.

It also seems popular with people who send RAJAR updates to their staff, though oddly the attribution seems to have fallen off the end of most of those emails. *cough* BBC Local Radio. Not that I really mind, I love you all.

Anyway…

  • Digital radio now accounts for 36.8% of all radio listening. That’s a bigger share than Radio 1, 2 and 4 combined.
    • This means DAB listening now accounts for nearly a quarter of all radio listening (23.9%)
    • The internet accounts for 6% of all listening.
    • Digital TV accounts for 5.3% of all listening.
  • Radio’s reach, as a whole, is a whopping 90.8%.
    • 81.4% of the UK listen to some form of analogue radio each week.
    • 52.4% of the UK listen to some form of digital radio each week.
    • Analogue listening in home though,  is now less than 50% – 48.7%.
    • 10.8% of listening in-car is now digital.
      • Partly due to 39.4% of all new cars having DAB radios fitted as standard.
  • Top 11 London stations by hours:
    • #1 Heart, #2 Kiss, #3 Magic, #4 LBC 97.3, #5 Capital, #6 Absolute, #7 Choice FM, #8 BBC London 94.9, #9 Smooth, #10 Gold, #11 XFM
  • Top 7 stations in London for 15-24s, by reach:
    • #1 Kiss (730k), #2 Capital (681k), #3 Radio 1 (509k), #4 Choice FM (348k), #5 Heart (330k), #6 Magic (327k), #7 1xtra (168k)
  • Top 7 stations in London for 65+, by reach:
    • #1 Radio 4 (815k), #2 Radio 2 (557k), #3 Five Live (246k), #4 Radio 3 (216k), #5 Magic (212k), #6 LBC (195k), #7 Heart (120k)
  • Jazz FM should be celebrating with a reach of 758k
    • However, should they go ahead with not being on DAB, then it could cause them some problems….
    • …whilst 464k people listen to it on DAB, only 66k listen though the TV and 127k through the internet.
  • Curse of the re-brand. Glide in Oxford (soon to become Jack 2) gets its highest reach in at least 5 years.
  • Radio 3’s audience is back under 2 million – never a happy place for it.
    • 6music is getting particularly close to it with a reach of 1.79m
    • 6music’s hours meanwhile, have been higher than Radio 3’s for over a year now.
  • Bauer should be happy:
    • Planet Rock breaks its audience record by getting over a million listeners (1.021m) and 8.7m hours.
      • By combining it with the audience that listened in Q2 to 105.2 in the West Mids (Kerrang or Planet Rock) takes it up to 1.29m reach and 9.9m hours.
  • Plus… it’s the highest ever reach and hours for the Absolute network. Driven by…
    • Highest ever reach for the ‘Absolute Radio’ station
    • Highest ever reach and hours for Absolute 80s
    • Highest ever reach for Absolute 90s.
    • Of the main Absolute Radio…
      • 54% if its listeners and 52% of their hours are digital
  • Grimmy has marginally increased his audience.
    • Looking at reach in ‘000s is a bit misleading this quarter as there’s been a population increase…
    • But, last quarter his show was listened to 11% of the population, it’s now 11.1%
    • His 15 to 24 reach is up a little (from 22.5% to 23%) but the market share has dropped to 20.7% (lowest for a long time – at least five years) – this means that these 15 to 24s are listening to the show for less time.
    • 25 to 34’s are flat as well (though declining slightly) from 20.9% to 19.6% reach. Share for them is down too – 16.3% (from 17.4%)
  • Radio 1’s average age is now 32.1 (if you look at 10+) or 33.7 (looking at 15+)
    • In Q2/2012 it was 32.2 (if you look at 10+) or 33.9 (looking at 15+)
  • I thought I’d have a look at the market share of the weekday programmes on R1:
    • Grimmy – 7%
    • Fearne/Sara Cox – 7.1%
    • 12.45 Newsbeat – 7.6%
    • Scott Mills – 8%
    • Greg James part 1 – 8.8%
    • 5.45 Newsbeat – 8%
    • Greg James – Part 2 – 7.3%
    • Zane Lowe – 6.7%
    • Specialist – 5.1%
    • Phil & Alice – 3.7%
  • XFM is pretty flat, the new XFM London Breakfast is down 60k on the quarter, but up 7k on the year.
    • XFM London’s flat across the board – down 60k on the quarter too and up 20k on the year
    • This give is a London share of 0.9%
  • Top Jack FM‘s on RAJAR – #1 South Coast 219k (best ever), #2 Bristol 112k, #3 Oxford 71.9k and #4 Swindon 16k
  • Mark Forrest‘s new network show has delivered the lowest ever reach and share for that timeslot.
    • However, in the region where Roger Day used to broadcast, Mark’s market share in his first two quarters are higher than that of Roger’s last two.
  • Here’s the top 18 breakfast show reaches in London:
    • #1 Today Progamme (R4) – 1,840m, #2 Chris Evans (R2) – 1,439m, #3 Dave & Lisa (Capital) – 1,103m, #4 Nick Grimshaw (R1) – 916, #5 Jamie & Emma (Heart) – 883, #6 Ricky, Melvin & Charlie (Kiss) – 865, #7 Christian O’Connell (on all Absolute stations) – 691, #8 Neil Fox (Magic) – 683, #9 Nick Ferrari (LBC 97.3) – 659, #10 Nicky Campbell & Rachel Burden (Five Live) – 559, #11 Tim Lihoreau (Classic FM) – 382, #12 Alan Brazil (talkSPORT) – 370, #13 Kojo (Choice) – 291, #14 Paul Ross & Penny Smith (BBC London) – 232, #15 Jon Holmes (XFM) – 182, #16 Simon Bates (Smooth) – 169, #17 Tony Dibbin (Gold) – 155, #18 Andy Gill (Sunrise) – 138
  • With Global trying to acquire GMG, but seemingly likely to have to make some disposals, I thought I’d rank the contribution of hours by each of the stations in the Capital network:
    • #1 London – 23.6%, #2 Yorkshire – 20.9%, #3 Out of Analogue Area – 11.9%, #4 East Midlands – 8.4%, #5 Scotland – 7.6%, #6 Birmingham – 7.5%, #7 North East – 6.8%, #8 Manchester – 6.7%, #9 South Coast – 3.5%, #10 South Wales – 3.1%

RAJAR Facts – Q1/2013

People seemed to like the RAJAR facts last quarter – so here’s some more. Be sure to add your own in the comments!

  • 47.2m people listen to the radio each week – that’s 90.3% of the UK!
  • Each week 54.9% of radio listeners listen to some form of digital radio.
  • The vast majority of it is DAB Digital Radio – 232m hours – that’s more than Radio 2 and Five Live’s total hours combined.
  • And Radio 2’s big! It continues its desire to have everyone tuning in – it has record reach and hours. Again. 15.2m reach and 183m hours
  • Radio 2’s hours are more than those of all of Global’s radio stations put together.
  • Speaking of which, this quarter Global Radio have their lowest ever hours since acquiring GCap – 161,148.
  • Absolute though, are celebrating their highest ever hours across their network – 25.7m.
  • They’ve got record reach and hours for Absolute 80s – 984k/5.9m – making it the biggest commercial digital radio station.
  • However, Capital has a million listeners outside of its analogue areas – making perhaps it the biggest ‘digital’ station.
  • But in London, it’s Capital’s lowest ever total hours.
  • Jazz FM‘s celebrating it’s best ever hours – 3.2m
  • and XFM’s got its best hours since Q1/08 – 5.2m
  • There’s really three XFM’s now:
    • London – 573k/2.8m
    • Manchester – 206k/1.0m
    • Rest of the UK – 250k/1.5m
  • The commercial radio station with the biggest share in London is Magic with 5.6%, the BBCs? Radio 4 with over three times that – a whopping 17.6%.
  • Also over three times the size? Radio 2’s hours are 3 times as big as Heart.
  • The top local London stations for share are Magic (5.6%), LBC (4.6%), Capital (4.2%), Heart (4.2%), Kiss (3.9%), Absolute (2.6%), Gold (1.7%), XFM (1.3%), BBC London (1.3%), Smooth (1.1%), Choice (1.1%)
  • The top national stations in London, by share, Radio 4 (17.2%), Radio 2 (12.6%), Radio 1 (4.5%), Five Live (4%), Classic FM (3.9%), talkSPORT (2.6%), Radio 3 (2%), 6 Music (1.4%), 4 Extra (0.9%), Absolute 80s (0.7%).
  • 8.3% of listening in car is now ‘digital’. 35% of all new cars have DAB as standard.
  • The amount of listening on DTV and the Internet is the same – about 5% each of all listening
  • Mark Forrest’s new programme has 1.60m listeners – across the network the highest reach and share in a year. If you sneakily look at the unbalanced quarterly figures, it’s doing even better – boding well for next quarter.
  • AM/FM listening is at its lowest point ever – it’s share of listening is now only 60%.
  • In London, it’s even smaller. AM/FM has just a 54% share.
  • Five Live has its best reach in a year – even beating its Olympic quarter.
  • Doing some maths, I believe that (excluding longwave/BBC Local AM simulcasts) AM, as a platform, now has a reach of 24.4% and a share of just 10.7%
  • DAB has a reach of 32% and a share of 22.5%.
  • Year-on-year Nick Grimshaw‘s R1 Breakfast show has lost 1.3m listeners and quarter-on-quarter it’s dropped 907k.
  • For 15-24s, year-on-year he’s lost 274k of them and quarter-on-quarter’s 198k have disappeared.
  • It’s not all bad, honest. Looking at 15+, the average age of the show is at a two and a half year low of 33. When you look at 10+ it’s 31.8.
  • UKRD/TLRC’s combined UK market share is 0.7% and has, in total, less listeners than Absolute 80s.

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And now over to Adam Bowie for the analysis or my other post for more on Nick Grimshaw.

Plus! on RAJAR Extra! A lovely infographic from RAJAR themselves!

RAJAR Q4/2012: Radio Listening Facts

Radios

On RAJAR day I’m lucky enough to have access to all the figures and interrogate them in lots of different ways. Normally what I do is:

1. Look at how my clients and friends have done

2. See what’s happened to the big stations and digital radio

3. Mooch about a bit and have a look for interesting things.

The third bit is the most fun, but often it just generates things I find interesting, rather than things I can write about. So, this quarter I thought I’d just list a load of things that I found out. Oh,  if you’ve found something interesting, leave it in a comment and I’ll add it to the list.

  • 47m people listen to the radio each week, that’s 89.8% of the UK
  • Each week 53.6% of the population listen to some form of digital radio (DAB, DTV and Net)
  • This is mainly made up of DAB listeners (they account for 2/3rds of all digital listening)
  • That means that DAB is listened to by 34.3% of the population each week.
  • Digital listening now accounts for 33% of all the time spent listening to the radio.
  • Analogue listening has had is lowest ever share – just 62.6% of radio listening is now to AM/FM radio.
  • Radio 2 has a ridiculous amount of listeners – 15.1m
  • 6Music are only 170,000 listeners behind Radio 3 (they’ve already got 10% more hours)
  • Global are the biggest commercial radio group (hours), but the hours for all of their stations combined, is still 20m hours less than that of Radio 2.
  • When Global combines with Real&Smooth they’ll have twice the hours of Bauer, its nearest competitor.
  • Even if Bauer then combined with UTV, Absolute, Orion, TLRC, UKRD, Celador, Town and Country, CN Group and Quidem, their total hours would still be smaller than the Global/Real & Smooth combo.
  • Global Radio’s ILR stations and Global Radio Sales have had their lowest ever hours this quarter.
  • Year on year, Orion’s hours are down 21% and their reach is down 12%.
  • Year on year, BBC Local radio have lost 11% of their hours and 5% of their reach
  • Year on year Absolute’s Network of stations have seen their hours increase 25% (and their reach 17%).
  • This is partly due to lots of fluctuations across their network of stations. In London alone in the last four quarters their hours have been:  2.3m, 4.3m, 1.9m and 3.7m
  • Real & Smooth’s hours are up 8% year on year. If they hadn’t launched Smooth 70s then they would be down 3% year on year.
  • 26,585 diaries were filled in for this RAJAR quarter
  • Bauer has had between 13.3m and 13.9m reach for the last nine quarters
  • Global Radio’s ILR reach has declined every quarter since Q2/2011
  • All but two of Capital’s regional stations (Yorkshire and Scotland) have seen a drop in reach since the network’s launch in Q1/2011.
  • Capital’s ILR network has 387k listeners less than when it started. But, its out of area listening has nearly doubled (to 1m reach) since it re-launced.
  • Therefore, overall the Capital Network is up around 100k listeners.
  • Top ten mid-morning shows (based on 10am to 1pm) Radio 2 (8.4m), Radio 4 (5m), Radio 1 (4.8m), Heart (3.1m), Capital (2.7m), Classic FM (2.4m), Kiss (1.6m), Five Live (1.5m), Smooth (1.3m) and Real (1m).
  • More people listen to Chris Evans in a week that listen to the entirety of either of the two biggest commercial radio networks – Global’s Heart or Bauer’s Place.
  • Grimmy at Radio 1 has lost 43k listeners, Shaun Keavney at 6Music has lost 17k listeners and Chris Evans? He’s added 977k listeners! Wow. This could suggest that R1 breakfast has churned out 1m listeners but churned in another 1m for their new show.
  • The average age of Grimmy’s audience (Q4/12) is 31.9. The average age of Moyles’ audience in Q2/12? 31.9 (based on 10+’s).
  • The top local stations in London (share) are: Magic (5.9%), Capital (4.8%), Kiss (4.3%), LBC (4.3%), Heart (4.2%), Absolute (3.3%), Smooth (1.7%), Choice (1.4%), XFM (1.2%), Gold (1%), BBC London (1%).
  • Where does radio listening happen? 63% at home, 22% in the car and 15% at work.
  • On a Monday, the most popular time for listening to the radio is between 8am and 8.15 (18.1m tuned in). It doesn’t change if you’re a BBC listener (11m) or a commercial listener (7.1m).

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RAJAR Q3/2012

Another RAJAR and some more figures to look at. Regular readers of the blog will know that what I’m particularly interested in is examples of a change of user behaviour. Little ups and downs for stations are one thing – but really what’s interesting is whether bigger changes are afoot.

I’m also interested in correcting mis-informed perceptions about radio. We can only evolve, change and develop if we understand where we are and where we’ve been.

And… I like to see where we are on digital developments. Everyone, of course, has some sort of vested interest, but i’m always disappointed that the people who shout the loudest about radio are newspaper journalists (little experience and their own digital problems) and people who own analogue radio stations. Which, I don’t think is necessarily the best position to start at.

So, some things that stick out for me….

Internet vs DAB

A pair of ears is a pair of ears. I don’t really mind HOW people listen to my station, just that they do! However, all platforms have a cost to stations and a cost to listeners. Some platforms are more equal than others.

There tends to be a perception that internet listening is bigger and growing faster than DAB. This is incorrect.

The chart below shows ‘reach’ of each of the platforms. DAB has just under three times the listeners that internet radio has. The difference between the two is growing exponentially as well. In Q3/2007 the difference was 5.1m people, in Q3/2010 7.9m people and this quarter 9.4m people.

Including all the digital platforms (DAB, DTV and Net) – some form of digital radio is now used by 51.2% of the population and it accounts for 31.3% (nearly a third) of the whole country’s radio listening.

This is down marginally this quarter because internet radio and digital television lost significant reach and hours (whilst DAB added both).

6Music vs XFM

XFM invented UK indie radio in 1997. Whilst 6Music is an excellent radio station in its own right, it owes a huge amount to XFM’s heritage. And to its choice of presenters! Shaun Keavney, Lauren Laverne, Steve Lamaq, Guy Garvey… are all ex-XFM.

XFM meanwhile has had to deal with a number of corporate owners, the vagries of the advertising market and a lack of marketing firepower. All of which has a knock-on effect to the variety, popularity and quality of shows. 6Music also gets to spend £7.8m a year on content. Which is handy.

However, the nature of 6Music means that it’s very attractive to old XFM listeners. Have a look at this chart of XFM and 6Music’s share in London….

I’m not really sure how XFM can make much of a comeback against 6.

6 is already a digital-only station (albeit with an audience that’s more likely to be digital than not) so it will also naturally grow further as take-up increases. XFM is suffering from the double whammy of 6’s growth and its own product having been under-invested in across pretty much every metric – content, marketing, online, mobile.

6Music vs Radio 3

Okay, so 6Music and Radio 3 aren’t exactly competitors (though they do share 150,000 listeners) but in the pantheon of BBC services it’s interesting to compare them.

Here’s the hours listened from both stations:

6 has had two quarters in a row where it’s bigger than Radio 3. From a reach perspective it’s not too far behind either…

Changing Behaviour

The rise of 6 is the results of a two things – platform availability in their core demo and a radio station with the right content that’s had a key awareness drive.

Its growth has pretty much destroyed one radio station and its bulk now means that others will have to develop new stories to justify their cost and reach.

It’s also a harbinger for other radio stations that the new world is changing the old one right now. Standing still (or even worse harking back to the past) with programming, a lack of marketing or new product/platform development will result in steady decline whilst new entrants take your market.

What are you doing to stop your station becoming the next XFM?